Mesoscale Discussion 1671
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021
Areas affected...eastern Maryland...Delaware...southern New
Jersey...far southeast Pennsylvania
Concerning...Tornado Watch 482...483...
Valid 011909Z - 012145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 482, 483 continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for a few tornadoes along with damaging wind
gusts will shift northeast out of Maryland and into Delaware,
southern New Jersey, and extreme southeast Pennsylvania.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front across
northern MD, southeast PA and into southern NJ, with a very moist
air mass to the south. Given persistent southerly surface winds
impinging on this front, it is likely that sufficient elevated
instability exists immediately north of the boundary to support
severe storms, most likely in the form of an MCS which should travel east/northeastward. Damaging winds will be possible with such
activity, with embedded circulations possible.
Otherwise, a tornado threat remains on and south of the front, where
storms will have access to around 2000 J/kg SBCAPE. The tornado risk
is maximized for northeastward-moving cells, providing maximum SRH
per 16Z IAD sounding. Other cells moving north/northwestward ahead
of the consolidating convective line may still yield strong gusts.
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