• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1671

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 1 19:10:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 011910
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011909=20
    NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-012145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1671
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0209 PM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021

    Areas affected...eastern Maryland...Delaware...southern New
    Jersey...far southeast Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 482...483...

    Valid 011909Z - 012145Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 482, 483 continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for a few tornadoes along with damaging wind
    gusts will shift northeast out of Maryland and into Delaware,
    southern New Jersey, and extreme southeast Pennsylvania.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front across
    northern MD, southeast PA and into southern NJ, with a very moist
    air mass to the south. Given persistent southerly surface winds
    impinging on this front, it is likely that sufficient elevated
    instability exists immediately north of the boundary to support
    severe storms, most likely in the form of an MCS which should travel east/northeastward. Damaging winds will be possible with such
    activity, with embedded circulations possible.

    Otherwise, a tornado threat remains on and south of the front, where
    storms will have access to around 2000 J/kg SBCAPE. The tornado risk
    is maximized for northeastward-moving cells, providing maximum SRH
    per 16Z IAD sounding. Other cells moving north/northwestward ahead
    of the consolidating convective line may still yield strong gusts.

    ..Jewell.. 09/01/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uVYJUNAaBn8NJfbt849-rON2rX1wpVaZR8Uabz35uaEeGPLr73RP-n8rLJi1FpZvwxr1p2z_$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 38877476 38197573 38147598 38257641 38677655 39097656
    39487656 39687656 39927640 40167577 40487485 40587427
    40307390 39837404 39427426 38877476=20



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