• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1670

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 1 17:52:47 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 011752
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011751=20
    NCZ000-011945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1670
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1251 PM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 011751Z - 011945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may pose a risk for damaging wind
    gusts and a tornado or two this afternoon/evening.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1730 UTC, regional radar and satellite data
    showed showers/weak thunderstorms developing ahead of a convergence
    band across east central North Carolina. Clear skies to the east of
    this boundary are supporting strong heating within a very moist
    airmass with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F. Continued destabilization is forecast to yield 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with
    little inhibition. Model soundings also show the remnants of PTC
    Ida's wind field are supporting veering wind profiles with moderate
    effective SRH (100-200 m2/s2) favorable for supercells. As storms
    develop this afternoon, some threat for a few strong wind gusts and
    or a couple of tornadoes may evolve. However, uncertainty remains
    regarding convective coverage and the duration of any severe threat
    as winds aloft are forecast to trend more unidirectional with time.=20

    Hi-res guidance shows isolated strong/severe storms may evolve early
    this afternoon across eastern North Carolina and far southern
    Virginia. Tracking generally north-northeast, a few instances of
    strong wind gusts or a brief tornado or two will remain possible
    especially with any supercells. Conditions are being monitored for a
    possible weather watch.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 09/01/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qLejyBNHOMD3cj0aTP62lbq9VGcRLvnMFUFMSQP--rbliuQPFT4FDJSuYtIYZH7FyjUkS9lf$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

    LAT...LON 34377735 34177767 34407816 34907866 35617847 36277823
    36427804 36447738 36367600 36107566 35937554 35257550
    34937618 34647635 34527694 34377735=20



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