Mesoscale Discussion 1669
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021
Areas affected...northeast Virginia into central and eastern
Concerning...Tornado Watch 482...483...
Valid 011732Z - 011930Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 482, 483 continues.
SUMMARY...A relative maximum in tornado risk currently stretches
from northeast Virginia into central and eastern Maryland.
DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have developed within a line south
of the D.C. area, with notable rotation on radar. The moist and
warming air mass has lead to 2000-2500 J/kg SBCAPE, including a
favorable amount of low-level CAPE as 700 mb temperatures remain
The 16Z special sounding from IAD shows an impressive low-level
hodograph structure, with observed storm motions resulting in 280
m2/s2 0-1 SRH. As such, it appears RAP-based objective analysis is underestimating the shear.
The environment east/northeast of the ongoing cells remains
favorable for a supercell tornado threat, bounded on the north by
the stationary front.
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