• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1669

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 1 17:33:28 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 011733
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011732=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-011930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1669
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1232 PM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021

    Areas affected...northeast Virginia into central and eastern
    Maryland

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 482...483...

    Valid 011732Z - 011930Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 482, 483 continues.

    SUMMARY...A relative maximum in tornado risk currently stretches
    from northeast Virginia into central and eastern Maryland.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have developed within a line south
    of the D.C. area, with notable rotation on radar. The moist and
    warming air mass has lead to 2000-2500 J/kg SBCAPE, including a
    favorable amount of low-level CAPE as 700 mb temperatures remain
    tempered.

    The 16Z special sounding from IAD shows an impressive low-level
    hodograph structure, with observed storm motions resulting in 280
    m2/s2 0-1 SRH. As such, it appears RAP-based objective analysis is underestimating the shear.

    The environment east/northeast of the ongoing cells remains
    favorable for a supercell tornado threat, bounded on the north by
    the stationary front.

    ..Jewell.. 09/01/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!swls_Ty7CzGynn-Sn-0g3ojY7Go4ne6jRhe8NyY2pFSEEQgxfAghnND1vxbNKoRaC5Lq4a-i$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 39747586 39237587 38557604 38147626 37887676 37867701
    37977722 38387718 38757720 39277750 39567724 39777654
    39827618 39747586=20



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