SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase in coverage and intensity
near a front from northern Virginia into New Jersey. Damaging winds
and a few tornadoes appear likely.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low over eastern WV with a
front extending east/northeastward into southern NJ. Extensive
clouds exist over much of the region, but relative clearing exists
across eastern NC and VA toward the Delmarva. The strongest
instability is coincident with the mid 70s F dewpoints near the zone
of clearing. While temperatures aloft are warm, this is still
resulting in substantial instability.
Low-level shear is currently maximized along and just north of the
stationary front from southern PA into NJ, as well as along an axis
from the WV Panhandle southward across west-central VA. 0-1 SRH
values up to 100 m2/s2 exist in the higher theta-e air mass, which
is sufficient for a tornado risk.
As the low continues slowly northeastward, and warm advection
persists near the rain-reinforced stationary front, effective SRH is
expected to concentrate from northern VA across MD, southeast PA and
NJ. Showers now forming along a line from central VA into northeast
NC near the instability gradient are expected to gradually deepen,
and a couple supercells may evolve out of this line of convection.
Otherwise, storms are likely to gradually increase in coverage and
intensity east of the low as it shifts into southeast PA and NJ be
evening. Both damaging winds and few tornadoes will be possible. In
addition, the PA/NJ portion of the front is expected to shift north,
and this may bring the severe risk toward Long Island this evening.
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