• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1666

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 1 04:20:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 010420
    SPC MCD 010419=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1666
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1119 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

    Areas affected...northern VA into MD

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 010419Z - 010545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of strong cells capable of producing brief
    tornadoes may spread northeast across parts of northern Virginia and
    western Maryland.

    DISCUSSION...A few persistent cells across central VA continue to
    show periods of low-level rotation as they track along the gradient
    of stronger 0-3 km MLCAPE. Forecast guidance shows this area of
    relatively greater instability persisting over parts of northern VA
    and MD. Low-level shear currently is weak downstream from WW 480
    across the MCD area. However, some improvement is forecast as
    stronger ascent spreads over the region and the stalled surface
    boundary lifts northward. This could support a few stronger cells
    with a continued tornado threat into the overnight hours, and a
    downstream tornado watch is possible.

    ..Leitman/Edwards.. 09/01/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qj93RjFZGr5JYWO4pXEtk9GWAI0c1yu3mYsk_enZu2E2RYrJpDm07IhK1o-0VllInLXc3A6Z$=
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    LAT...LON 38107736 38247777 38587810 38727809 38917804 39217755
    39257674 39067630 38707626 38357635 38197667 38127701

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