• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1663

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 31 22:58:23 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 312258
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 312257=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-010030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1663
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0557 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

    Areas affected...portions of western VA into southern WV

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 312257Z - 010030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of brief tornadoes are possible this evening
    across western Virginia into southern West Virginia. Area is being
    monitored for possible watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of cells within a north-south oriented band
    lifting northward across western VA have increased in intensity this
    evening. Weak to moderate low-level rotation has been noted and one
    cell near Blacksburg produced a CC minimum in radar data recently.
    This activity is strengthening within a narrow corridor of favorable
    low-level shear/SRH. VWP data from KFCX shows an enlarged, curved
    low-level hodograph with 0-1 SRH around 200 m2/s2. Furthermore,
    effective shear around 30 kt and 0-3 km MLCAPE around 100-150 J/kg
    should further support at least briefly organized, rotating cells.
    If trends continue, a watch may be needed for portions of the MCD
    area this evening.

    ..Leitman/Edwards.. 08/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ofFyFrDtkWl_ZhCBQjSTD5SGSz4mFqjyEE9y1inDGMs86ZCv8IaM2Aa64U0s-bDKqQSecaTg$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...

    LAT...LON 36968131 37448127 37758103 37818075 37848033 37727993
    37387971 37047971 36537989 36428029 36448085 36618124
    36968131=20



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