Mesoscale Discussion 1662
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021
Areas affected...southeast Alabama into southwest Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 312049Z - 312245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong cells may impact southeast Alabama into
western Georgia, and a weak/brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...Scattered cells have formed over southeast AL this
afternoon, in a region of clearing. Temperatures have risen into the
upper 80s F over southern AL, with veered/southwesterly surface
winds. Meanwhile, cooler air remains over southwest GA, where
outflow air is modifying. Visible imagery reveals north/south
oriented boundary layer billow clouds as well, where surface winds
remain out of the south.
Objective analysis indicates 0-1 SRH around 150 m2/s2, which may be
sufficient to support rotation within the developing convection.
Instability is not overlay large, suggesting any severe risk will
remain isolated and/or short lived.
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