• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1661

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 31 18:03:50 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 311803
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311803=20
    GAZ000-SCZ000-312000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1661
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0103 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast Georgia...far western South
    Carolina...and far northeastern Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 311803Z - 312000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A risk for a brief tornado or two and some damaging winds
    remain possible with storms ongoing associated with the remnants of
    Tropical Cyclone Ida. Uncertainty remains high on the coverage of
    any tornado/wind threat this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1800 UTC, the remnant low of TC Ida was located
    across northern Alabama with a loosely organized convective band
    extending east/southeastward from the center across central Georgia.
    Within this line, lightning has tended to increase over the last
    hour as storms have progressed eastward toward areas of lower cloud
    coverage across far northeastern Georgia and western South Carolina.
    Here, SPC mesoanalysis indicates insolation has increased MLCAPE
    values to 500-1000 J/kg. However, this area of greater buoyancy is
    somewhat displaced from stronger low-level shear associated with
    Ida's decaying wind field. With smaller low-level hodographs and
    effective SRH, the tornado threat maybe somewhat muted despite
    greater instability. Enough overlap of buoyancy and shear may
    overlap to support a low-end risk for one or two brief tornadoes and
    some damaging wind gusts over the next couple of hours as storms
    continue to the north/northeast.

    Behind the leading convective band, water vapor and visible imagery
    show a pocket of clearing where dry mid-level air has intruded along
    the Alabama Georgia border. Weak insolation through cloud breaks is
    supporting some additional destabilization within the tropical
    airmass. A few weak showers/thunderstorms have recently developed
    within this area. Low-level wind fields nearer Ida's center remain
    stronger and marginally supportive of a low-end supercell/tornado
    risk despite surface obs tending to veer with time as Ida lifts to
    the northeast. A tornado remains possible with any storms able to
    become established this afternoon. Given the low confidence and
    limited overlap of strong low-level shear and buoyancy a watch is
    unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 08/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rwhMmDgfDZ-9c9dGB7pScpPN7raoZm1YpcF8l90vw_tz0JNCr12IXNhWvzoMgETkoJZQ7nPH$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

    LAT...LON 34948387 34998302 34918257 34698219 34308205 33938205
    33568211 33248221 32828232 32668245 32678297 33288318
    33518332 33558357 33318389 33108409 33008435 32988461
    33098481 33378510 33928506 34348471 34948387=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 31 18:06:26 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1630433192-66761-3475
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    ACUS11 KWNS 311806
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311805 COR
    GAZ000-SCZ000-312000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1661
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0105 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Georgia...far western South Carolina...and
    far northeastern Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 311805Z - 312000Z

    CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED WORDING

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A risk for a brief tornado or two and some damaging winds
    remain possible with storms ongoing associated with the remnants of
    Tropical Cyclone Ida. Uncertainty remains high on the coverage of
    any tornado/wind threat this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1800 UTC, the remnant low of TC Ida was located
    across northern Alabama with a loosely organized convective band
    extending east/southeastward from the center across central Georgia.
    Within this line, lightning has tended to increase over the last
    hour as storms have progressed eastward toward areas of lower cloud
    coverage across far northeastern Georgia and western South Carolina.
    Here, SPC mesoanalysis indicates insolation has increased MLCAPE
    values to 500-1000 J/kg. However, this area of greater buoyancy is
    somewhat displaced from stronger low-level shear associated with
    Ida's decaying wind field. With smaller low-level hodographs and
    effective SRH, the tornado threat maybe somewhat muted despite
    greater instability. Enough overlap of buoyancy and shear may
    overlap to support a low-end risk for one or two brief tornadoes and
    some damaging wind gusts over the next couple of hours as storms
    continue to the north/northeast.

    Behind the leading convective band, water vapor and visible imagery
    show a pocket of clearing where dry mid-level air has intruded along
    the Alabama Georgia border. Weak insolation through cloud breaks is
    supporting some additional destabilization within the tropical
    airmass. A few weak showers/thunderstorms have recently developed
    within this area. Low-level wind fields nearer Ida's center remain
    stronger and marginally supportive of a low-end supercell/tornado
    risk despite surface obs tending to veer with time as Ida lifts to
    the northeast. A tornado remains possible with any storms able to
    become established this afternoon. Given the low confidence and
    limited overlap of strong low-level shear and buoyancy a watch is
    unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 08/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pBiKUQRSVafoOZxdlDdcpf7WZgceg6EPv34s13HUgbp-OfWKbOaJ3OYbACTT2vWclr2bEFXN$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

    LAT...LON 34948387 34998302 34918257 34698219 34308205 33938205
    33568211 33248221 32828232 32668245 32678297 33288318
    33518332 33558357 33318389 33108409 33008435 32988461
    33098481 33378510 33928506 34348471 34948387=20



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    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

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