• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1659

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 31 12:44:55 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 311244
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311244=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-311445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1659
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0744 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

    Areas affected...Extreme southeast AL into western and northern GA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 311244Z - 311445Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for a couple of tornadoes may increase by
    mid-late morning with modest destabilization, and a tornado watch
    may need to be considered.

    DISCUSSION...The primary confluence band, east of the remnants of
    Ida, continues to move eastward from AL into western GA this
    morning. Weak rotation has been noted the past few hours with
    embedded/weak supercell structure. However, once temperatures warm
    into the upper 70s (per the 12z FFC sounding), there will be an
    increased in surface-based CAPE and a reduction in near-surface
    convective inhibition. Given the continued presence of 250-300
    m2/s2 effective SRH along the confluence band, destabilization near
    the surface may promote an increase in the threat for a couple of
    tornadoes. This area will be monitored closely for any increase in
    tornado threat, and the potential for a tornado watch by mid-late
    morning.

    ..Thompson.. 08/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qTHvSJyV9iGSB8pWKz9EW3PLNDZcCOlaoNxaOEGhEIn36YO8c0kMp4w0wQlcxbeLqTrsTEvg$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...

    LAT...LON 33138359 31468439 31368523 31798528 32938493 34118470
    34728463 34898436 34778383 34268345 33138359=20



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