• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1658

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 31 09:31:50 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 310931
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310931=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-311100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1658
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0431 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

    Areas affected...East central/southeast AL and west central GA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 310931Z - 311100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A low-end threat for a brief/weak tornado or two will
    persist this morning, but a watch is not anticipated in the short
    term.

    DISCUSSION...The primary confluence band, to the east of the remnant
    center of tropical cyclone Ida, extends from south central into east
    central AL. A narrow corridor of 73-74 F surface dewpoints extends
    along this confluence zone, where buoyancy is relatively larger and
    coincident with the belt of stronger low-level shear/SRH. Buoyancy
    is marginal for a supercell/tornado threat, but there is enough CAPE
    to support updrafts producing lightning, so an isolated/weak tornado
    will still be possible with the more persistent supercell structures
    in the confluence band. Given that this is still well before the
    diurnal heating cycle, the prospects for much ramp up in the tornado
    threat appear limited. Thus, a watch is not anticipated in the next
    couple of hours.

    ..Thompson.. 08/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qXg3cBHpl-Jv75uzhdT-7kIWOyps_4ZZjJbxAcek8gT7UoY0f0-gO2MU4C0IXYcV93lLRGhx$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 32988590 33878565 33968519 33808483 33368485 32688510
    32078556 31468598 31338639 31458662 32388612 32988590=20



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