• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1657

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 31 08:03:00 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 310802
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310802=20
    MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-311000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1657
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0302 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

    Areas affected...Far Southern South Dakota...Northern and Eastern Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Far Northwest Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479...

    Valid 310802Z - 311000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is likely to continue for a few
    more hours, mainly across northern and eastern Nebraska
    southeastward into southwest Iowa and far northwest Missouri. New
    weather watch issuance is not expected beyond the 10Z expiration
    time of WW 479.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a MCS extending from
    southern sections of the northern Plains southeastward into the
    lower Missouri Valley. This large area of thunderstorms is located
    along a northwest-to-southeast corridor of moderate instability. The
    RAP is estimating MLCAPE along this corridor in the 1500 to 2000
    J/kg range. Most of the instability is located above 850 mb with
    forecast soundings showing a boundary layer temperature inversion.
    In spite of this, effective shear is estimated to be in the 30 to 35
    kt range. This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.0 C/km
    should be enough for a isolated large hail threat with the stronger
    rotating cells. An isolated wind-damage threat will also be
    possible. However, the severe threat should become more isolated
    with time over the next few hours and should be too marginal for the
    issuance of another watch after 10Z.

    ..Broyles.. 08/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v0WoTuqusVVoa4OkIypEcMj4R-jqqgLRO4NO2iAiKAdUw0THJSiyH-sqOI5L_Ao5Hxp1OOb1$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 43129857 43299944 43230047 42750076 42200026 41649875
    40679736 40149647 40009545 40219460 40489414 40879407
    41659510 42219660 43129857=20



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