• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1655

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 31 00:25:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 310025
    SPC MCD 310025=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1655
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0725 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

    Areas affected...portions of southern South Dakota and northern

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477...

    Valid 310025Z - 310300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477

    SUMMARY...Large hail and strong wind gusts will remain possible
    across WW 477 the next few hours. A hail and damaging-wind threat
    may develop downstream across parts of southern South Dakota and
    northern Nebraska this evening and this area is being monitored for
    possible watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated severe thunderstorms continue this evening
    across western South Dakota within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477.
    Very large hail continues to be the main hazard with this activity
    and should persist for another couple of hours.=20

    Downstream evolution of the severe threat continues to be somewhat
    uncertain across parts of south-central/southeast SD and north-central/northeast NE. An agitated CU field over Cherry County
    NE has shown increasing vertical development over the past hour or
    so, with several TCU noted in visible satellite imagery. HRRR
    guidance has struggled to accurately depict ongoing convection
    across the region in a weak forcing regime. But most guidance has
    been consistent in developing east/southeastward-advancing
    thunderstorm clusters across southern SD into northern NE this
    evening. The 00z RAOB from LBF indicates inhibition has weakened
    considerably since the 18z LBF RAOB. The overall environment
    downstream from WW 477 remains favorable for severe storms given
    strong vertical shear and moderate instability. A subtle shortwave
    impulse shifting eastward from WY may be sufficient amid a
    developing southerly low level jet across the region to support
    additional thunderstorm development this evening. Coverage and
    timing remains uncertain, but a downstream watch may be needed in
    the next few hours downstream from WW 477.

    ..Leitman/Edwards.. 08/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pn5IKYcbn2B-kjJwfShyK05gi_ByzNpirdfsFNvtvWSLnBvLq5DEj2TUMKtrWNGsJz8cgwmK$=
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    LAT...LON 43580261 44210262 44750226 44980173 44840051 44529929
    43999833 43659782 43259725 42919697 42439694 42169716
    42019774 41979810 41979880 42020011 42190086 42630164
    43210232 43580261=20

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