• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1653

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 30 20:51:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 302051
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302051=20
    NJZ000-DEZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-302215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1653
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0351 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic into central Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 302051Z - 302215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms ongoing may be capable of a
    damaging gust or two into this evening. Given low
    coverage/organization a weather watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2035 UTC, regional radar showed several clusters
    of thunderstorms ongoing across the Mid Atlantic and Virginia. These
    storms were located on the periphery of surface high pressure where
    SPC mesoanalysis showed warm temperatures and dewpoints in the 60s
    and 70s F were contributing to 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Vertical
    shear remains quite weak with less than 20 kt depicted from regional
    VWPs. Thus, many of these storms have exhibited limited organization
    with a primarily multicell/pulse storm mode. However,
    temperature/dewpoint spreads near 25 degrees F may support a few
    stronger downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts this afternoon
    and early evening. As storms continue to move to the south and east,
    gradual weakening is expected as diurnal heating diminishes. Given
    the limited potential for organized severe weather, a watch is not
    expected. However, a few strong wind gusts may occur.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 08/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qdSRzNXgf07ZCbh-0U6vidcofu4a3IMFG5nxP7lE8rtYypmtgpXhEDENzr1qOK3BkLpRKlK2$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 37607951 38597847 39377670 39757567 39957482 39417490
    39017537 38687596 38247677 37817719 37557738 37337757
    37257805 37217864 37267928 37297948 37607951=20



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