• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1652

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 30 20:14:15 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 302014
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302013=20
    ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-302215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1652
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0313 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

    Areas affected...eastern Mississippi into Alabama...western Florida
    Panhandle

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 475...

    Valid 302013Z - 302215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 475 continues.

    SUMMARY...Conditions remain sufficiently favorable for a tornado
    risk in association with Ida. The primary risk area appears to be
    from eastern Mississippi into western Alabama.

    DISCUSSION...Three primary bands of convection persist from MS into
    AL and the FL Panhandle this afternoon. The middle band has been the
    most productive in terms of tornado risk, but has lost intensity
    with time as it translated east into central AL. Widespread rain is
    likely limited potential here.

    To the east, scattered storms persist across southeast AL and into
    the FL Panhandle. Here, instability is maximized, but this area is
    on the eastern fringe of the more favorable shear. As such, the
    tornado risk here may remain low.

    In the near term, the most favorable area may be with a newly
    developed band consisting of broken cells over far eastern MS. The
    environment here consists of 250+ 0-1 km SRH, as well as a narrow
    sector of recovering air mass out of the southwest. This may yield a
    tornado risk which may shift again into parts of AL.

    ..Jewell.. 08/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tw3cb3-Nzo3weZyAa_FGYULS7Z7Kac0CofV_Nu8j4fdxSP2eRcaweUXv79HNq4sKcUt7VQrQ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30178898 30348927 30948918 31448885 32388870 33028894
    33328907 33508895 33528842 33548766 33478718 33318677
    32848642 32128637 31088646 30548665 30258689 30168787
    30148837 30178898=20



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