Mesoscale Discussion 1651
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021
Areas affected...central into southern North Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476...
Valid 301954Z - 302200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476
SUMMARY...The threat for large hail continues across central North
Dakota, and a few additional cells may develop through late
afternoon. Watch expansion may be considered.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of cells, some severe, continue to move very
slowly southeastward, near the Bismarck area. The southward motion
of the most intense cell suggests the storm is now ingesting surface
air. Given the favorable time of day, cells should maintain strength
and may increase in intensity.
West of the watch, visible satellite shows a cumulus field into
southwest ND, coincident with a surface heating axis. Here,
instability is maximized, and several models suggest isolated cells
developing. If this occurs, large hail will be likely, and
additional counties may need to be added into watch 476.
By evening, storms may shift into SD, necessitating watch
consideration there. Large hail should continue to be the main risk
across northern SD.
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