• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1651

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 30 19:54:44 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301954
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301954=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-302200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1651
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0254 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

    Areas affected...central into southern North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476...

    Valid 301954Z - 302200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for large hail continues across central North
    Dakota, and a few additional cells may develop through late
    afternoon. Watch expansion may be considered.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of cells, some severe, continue to move very
    slowly southeastward, near the Bismarck area. The southward motion
    of the most intense cell suggests the storm is now ingesting surface
    air. Given the favorable time of day, cells should maintain strength
    and may increase in intensity.

    West of the watch, visible satellite shows a cumulus field into
    southwest ND, coincident with a surface heating axis. Here,
    instability is maximized, and several models suggest isolated cells
    developing. If this occurs, large hail will be likely, and
    additional counties may need to be added into watch 476.

    By evening, storms may shift into SD, necessitating watch
    consideration there. Large hail should continue to be the main risk
    across northern SD.

    ..Jewell.. 08/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vnLVkQbv7PksXdhTZUoM-_Qt8h5jMhLBU-cRKMZvyRD67-C5w-dkT2pxMIyHGaL37ex8zw0p$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

    LAT...LON 45420011 45450164 45490223 45710281 46250312 46560319
    47070287 47620256 47920209 47870165 47460110 46770029
    46479989 46009971 45629976 45489977 45420011=20



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