• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1649

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 30 17:04:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301704
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301703=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-302100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1649
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1203 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

    Areas affected...northern/eastern Mississippi into western Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 301703Z - 302100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible within an outer
    convective band from northern Mississippi into western/central
    Alabama, but potential currently appears too low for a watch.
    Embedded areas of rotation or a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled
    out.

    DISCUSSION...Several shallow convective elements are noted on radar
    from northwest of Columbus MS to near Centreville AL, with stronger
    storms continuing southward into tornado watch 475.

    Objective analysis shows the more favorable instability into central
    AL where MLCAPE is near 500 J/kg, while values are only near 250
    J/kg along the MS/AL border. Low-level shear is currently maximized
    over central and eastern MS, with 0-1 km SRH over 300 m2/s2.
    Meanwhile, these shear values drop to around 150 m2/s2 over central
    AL.

    There may be a region of shear/instability overlap from northeast MS
    into western AL this afternoon which could support increasing
    rotation within the convective line. At this time, the threat is low
    for tornadoes, but storm trends will continue to be monitored for
    increasing rotation potential.

    ..Jewell/Grams.. 08/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rPt_eQQsXOWsk3jlH9IsYeTqBJoRyGQaqJ1oMljDKxvPfAANIcBEgUkJwfJmGTszExNrHcUr$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33378662 32988661 32728675 32618706 32628726 32758751
    33308832 33628889 33788934 33878971 34328988 34898935
    34908825 34778775 34438722 33998680 33378662=20



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