• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1644

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 29 22:38:36 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 292238
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292237=20
    FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-300000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1644
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0537 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

    Areas affected...southeast LA...southern MS...southwest AL...western
    FL Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 292237Z - 300000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The greatest risk for supercell tornado will likely remain
    near the I-10 corridor early this evening. The tornado risk will
    gradually spread inland later tonight as Ida moves north.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis (5 pm / 22 UTC) places a
    maritime warm frontal zone near I-10 over southern MS east into the
    western FL Panhandle. To its south, mid 70s deg F dewpoints have
    been observed with lower 70s noted farther north from Hattiesburg,
    MS east to Evergreen, AL. As Ida continues to move north, the
    poleward influx of higher theta-e into southern MS and southern AL
    will occur. Hodographs will remain enlarged and conditionally
    support low-level rotation with any stronger and more persistent
    updraft. It appears the overall tornado risk will be tempered until
    more cellular morphology occurs in the outer convective bands.=20
    Nonetheless, brief tornadoes may occur with short-lived amorphous
    embedded cellular structure over the next few hours. Given the
    overall potential for a continuation of the conditionally favorable
    environment for supercells, a new tornado watch will need to be
    coordinated prior to the expiration of tornado watch 472 (7 pm / 00
    UTC).

    ..Smith/Edwards.. 08/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t5qD5wU6Q7WnsjKY9PSvmfN0byQJ73ntpD16gWHM-MuvTHJHqtsw_KJEtXs71L4UPB1cG7Pk$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30278943 30878955 31208924 31178673 30418637 30048669
    29838882 30278943=20



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