• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1642

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 29 20:09:11 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 292009
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292008=20
    MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-292145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1642
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0308 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 292008Z - 292145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind/hail threat possible this
    afternoon/evening. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a couple bands of storms
    developing, one along a pre-frontal trough situated across central
    into southwestern Lower Michigan and another along a cold front
    farther west. Afternoon heating has resulted in sufficient
    destabilization to produce MLCAPE values near 1500-2000 J/kg in the
    vicinity of these storms. Despite the relatively moderate buoyancy,
    deep-layer shear remains rather weak, with less than 20 kt of
    predominately unidirectional shear evident in the GRR VAD in all
    layers.

    Storms should continue to increase in coverage through the remainder
    of the afternoon and early evening, given the conditionally unstable environment and forcing for ascent from the advancing cold front to
    go along with subtle forcing and marginally enhanced mid-level flow
    along the southern extent of upper-level trough. The weakly sheared
    environment will limit storm organization, but some localized severe
    winds/hail are possible with the most intense storms that develop.
    Given the somewhat isolated/transient nature of the expected
    threats, watch issuance is not anticipated at this time.

    ..Karstens/Grams.. 08/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uRDa4vxZVTNhRMv5iPrXxdzP24gUlAPGDnNX3CMHBTmD6mrKv-Bmcqt6jBldC9a3LVzKPOxR$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

    LAT...LON 43048452 42758415 41588472 40828592 40718742 41638729
    42188639 43068610 43048452=20



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