• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1641

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 29 18:18:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 291818
    SPC MCD 291818=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1641
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0118 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Illinois and far Northwestern Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 291818Z - 291945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few multicell storms capable of isolated damaging wind
    gusts possible this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar show a line of storms that have
    initiated along a cold front across northern and northwestern
    Illinois. Minimal cloud cover this morning has allowed the
    downstream surface environment to warm rapidly into the mid 80s F
    amid rich low-level moisture (dew point temperatures in the low 70s
    F). This has allowed the atmosphere to destabilize, resulting in
    MLCAPE values near 2000-2500 J/kg. Low-level winds are veered ahead
    of the front and forecast soundings indicate predominately
    unidirectional shear profiles. This area is situated along the
    southern periphery of the advancing mid-level trough, and thus,
    generally weak flow aloft is yielding little in the way of
    deep-layer shear (effective bulk shear perhaps approaching 20 kt). Nevertheless, continued heating through the afternoon may yield
    low-level lapse rates near 7 C/km sufficient to aid in the threat
    for localized damaging wind gusts with any multicell clusters that
    are able to persist along the advancing front this afternoon.

    ..Karstens/Grams.. 08/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tbFsildTOTznQzqBJAMeIkf1zMoIQ4IQu0CNynGyjlJoA5HpvESwnqvtzA3h_9ispmUsCNdK$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40278979 41089065 42018914 42978811 42688760 41478713
    40538741 40118799 40278979=20

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