• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1640

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 29 17:08:05 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 291708
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291707=20
    NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-291830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1640
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1207 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern Ohio...Western Pennsylvania...far Northern
    West Virginia...and Western New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 291707Z - 291830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few localized damaging wind gusts may occur with the
    strongest storms this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Strong insolation and weak inhibition has led to rapid destabilization and ensuing convective development across the
    region. The warm/moist conditions near the surface, characterized by temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F and dew point temperatures in
    the low 70s F, are yielding approximately 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE.
    With continued heating through the afternoon amid a weakly sheared
    environment, pulse-like storms can be expected to continue into the
    early evening hours. Although organized convection is not expected,
    somewhat moderate low-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km should support
    the threat for isolated damaging wind gusts with the strongest
    cells. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

    ..Karstens/Grams.. 08/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tjU04B5v3F9huvsTyE91KGhiKy6I8sJPqXepSBKZc6xm2ey7Bu-eGOhKe9PxV8eriRRH5CU_$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

    LAT...LON 38928211 39348302 40508265 41548207 42447952 42787905
    43117908 43527853 43587759 42567750 41017845 39688007
    38928211=20



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