Mesoscale Discussion 1640
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021
Areas affected...Eastern Ohio...Western Pennsylvania...far Northern
West Virginia...and Western New York
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 291707Z - 291830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few localized damaging wind gusts may occur with the
strongest storms this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Strong insolation and weak inhibition has led to rapid destabilization and ensuing convective development across the
region. The warm/moist conditions near the surface, characterized by temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F and dew point temperatures in
the low 70s F, are yielding approximately 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE.
With continued heating through the afternoon amid a weakly sheared
environment, pulse-like storms can be expected to continue into the
early evening hours. Although organized convection is not expected,
somewhat moderate low-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km should support
the threat for isolated damaging wind gusts with the strongest
cells. Watch issuance is not anticipated.
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