• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1639

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 29 17:06:07 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 291706
    SPC MCD 291705=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1639
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1205 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

    Areas affected...much of northern Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 291705Z - 291900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms, some producing damaging wind gusts and
    marginally severe hail, are expected to develop around 19Z over
    northern Lower Michigan.

    DISCUSSION...Strong heating continues across Lower MI well ahead of
    a cold front approaching Lake MI from the west. Scattered convection
    is already developing along the front from southeast WI into the
    eastern Upper MI.=20

    The greatest threat of severe storms appears to be over the northern
    half of Lower MI. Here, deep-layer shear will average near 40 kt,
    aiding storm longevity. A line, or broken line of cells is expected
    form ahead of the front, with both damaging wind and marginal hail
    risk. Although shear decreases rapidly farther south into central
    and southern MI, favorable instability as well as sufficient mean
    wind speeds suggest at least isolated strong wind gusts are

    ..Jewell/Grams.. 08/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q4fVJSU9ZxtbZDGVtPBfgTKq9oT_zoBjwc23FJIB5vPteqULTV9kGkGcJUPerlkmg2XHwU8m$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 45338330 44718319 44348323 43668370 43378415 43348469
    43378535 43718586 44468589 45088554 45758508 45908454
    45688383 45338330=20

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