• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1637

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 29 10:08:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 291007
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291007=20
    ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-291230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1637
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0507 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...Far Southern Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 291007Z - 291230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A tornado threat will develop across southeast Louisiana
    and far southern Mississippi this morning. A tornado watch will need
    to be issued across the central Gulf Coast.

    DISCUSSION...Hurricane Ida is currently located 60 statute miles
    south from southeast tip of Louisiana. The National Hurricane Center
    is forecasting Hurricane Ida to move into southeast Louisiana early
    this afternoon. Ahead of the center of Ida, two well-defined
    circular rainbands are present. The outer band will move inland
    across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi over the next 2
    to 4 hours. Short lines of convection are ongoing near New Orleans
    and to the south of Biloxi, Mississippi within this outer band. The
    RAP is currently analyzing moderate instability from southeast
    Louisiana into southern Mississippi where MLCAPE is estimated in the
    1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Precipitable water values are above 2.25
    inches, which is helping to create LCL heights between 500 and 700
    meters above ground level. The New Orleans WSR-88D VWP currently has
    0-1 km shear near 30 kt but RAP forecast soundings gradually
    increase 0-1 km shear to about 40 kt by 12Z. This will make
    low-level shear increasingly favorable for tornadoes over the next
    few hours. The more discrete cells within these outer bands of Ida
    will have potential to become supercells and could be associated
    with tornadoes. For this reason, a tornado watch will be issued in
    the 11Z to 12Z timeframe for parts of southeast Louisiana and far
    southern Mississippi.

    ..Broyles/Thompson.. 08/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sQ2zl-Zm_-P1jHPMMBFonEsFkd9Oks5a4ddy5PuqOYHE0oeZ3HotTYoXNOAAPYuo9gNPStWD$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

    LAT...LON 29599117 28939103 28919035 28858967 28808920 29018882
    29308862 29508849 29778832 29958775 30018717 30268695
    30648686 30958706 31118799 31018917 30699022 30359082
    30109102 29599117=20



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