• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1636

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 29 02:58:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 290257
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290257=20
    IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-290400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1636
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0957 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

    Areas affected...eastern NE...western and north-central IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 290257Z - 290400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of linear clusters will likely consolidate
    further into a continuous squall line from southern MN southwestward
    into eastern NE during the next hour. Intensity of gusts will
    probably lessen with time concurrent with the decreasing spatial
    coverage of severe/damaging gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic at 955pm shows a strong to severe storm
    cluster over southwest MN into northwest IA and a separate linear
    cluster of eastern NE. The Norfolk, NE ASOS measured a 53-kt gust
    at 902pm. As a cold front continues to sweep southeast as a
    mid-level shortwave trough approaches, storm organization in the
    form of a squall line will likely continue into the overnight across
    western and into central IA. Despite the presence of rich low-level
    moisture (lower 70s dewpoints), cooling in the boundary layer will
    result in increased convective inhibition and weakening buoyancy
    with time. Therefore, it seems likely the squall line will
    consolidate into a continuous band of storms but the potential for severe/damaging gusts will gradually diminish. Current expectation
    is the threat for isolated to widely scattered severe gusts to
    continue over eastern NE and far northwest IA for the next hour or
    so, but for the propensity for these gusts to become more isolated
    as this activity moves farther east and closer to midnight.

    ..Smith/Guyer.. 08/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t4KwFzME4Br9Yebbi672ENAY3HhqQeHbNtJO6WBdtLdXY-N8xb6rpBfGGJJ0pfk5z1IpkJt8$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 41479685 43469472 43599321 43199298 42689317 41259524
    41179622 41479685=20



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