• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1632

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 28 22:42:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 282242
    SPC MCD 282242=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1632
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0542 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 282242Z - 290015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts or instances of large hail may
    accompany the stronger storms over the next few hours. A WW issuance
    is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Multicellular storm clusters have recently intensified
    over the last hour or so while forming into loosely organized linear
    segments, with a couple of 50+ kt gust and 1.0 inch hail reports
    recently received. While deep-layer shear/ascent is quite modest
    over Lower Michigan, ample buoyancy (2000 J/kg MLCAPE driven by 7.5
    C/km low-level lapse rates per 22Z mesoanalysis) will continue to
    support a couple more strong to potentially severe wind gusts and
    perhaps marginally severe hail for a few more hours. Given the
    brief, localized extent of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sTMs98pUokBCD-cu7FzBQS0XRADpzAp2d3sg6ihhWVNy8d--zBJ0Wpvz_RBMZvT0AnmfHKaG$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 43198453 43858383 44148333 44148289 43558234 43128225
    42868240 42728304 42748370 42888447 43198453=20

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