• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1631

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 28 22:28:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 282227
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282227=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-282330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1631
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0527 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Minnesota

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 469...

    Valid 282227Z - 282330Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 469 continues.

    SUMMARY...A cluster of storms in southwestern Minnesota has shown
    increasing damaging wind potential. The downstream environment
    should continue to support organized convection. A downstream watch
    is likely within the next hour or so.

    DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms has shown an increase
    in the potential for strong wind gusts in southwest Minnesota. KFSD
    velocity data show 60+ kts of outbound velocity in the lowest 1-2
    km. This activity has had a history of QLCS tornadoes south of Sioux
    Falls, SD. The environment ahead of the line is marginally
    supportive of additional spin-ups along the leading edge of the
    complex.

    With the environment in southern Minnesota showing warming into the
    low/mid 80s, buoyancy is increasing ahead of the line. An expected
    increase in the low-level jet will also contribute to additional
    low-level moistening this evening. This setup should favor
    maintenance of the cluster for the next few hours. A downstream
    watch is likely within the next hour or so.

    ..Wendt.. 08/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rhr4CkOl8GNNT3QD69Fpkxja0bewY7NJGUatXzYgBHF3Yx3j9GnfhNzDgYVfczC0Wws55NDC$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 43899681 44379628 44779499 44849373 44699277 44189226
    44109225 43679237 43509301 43359482 43519612 43619663
    43899681=20



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