Mesoscale Discussion 1631
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0527 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021
Areas affected...Southern Minnesota
Concerning...Tornado Watch 469...
Valid 282227Z - 282330Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 469 continues.
SUMMARY...A cluster of storms in southwestern Minnesota has shown
increasing damaging wind potential. The downstream environment
should continue to support organized convection. A downstream watch
is likely within the next hour or so.
DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms has shown an increase
in the potential for strong wind gusts in southwest Minnesota. KFSD
velocity data show 60+ kts of outbound velocity in the lowest 1-2
km. This activity has had a history of QLCS tornadoes south of Sioux
Falls, SD. The environment ahead of the line is marginally
supportive of additional spin-ups along the leading edge of the
With the environment in southern Minnesota showing warming into the
low/mid 80s, buoyancy is increasing ahead of the line. An expected
increase in the low-level jet will also contribute to additional
low-level moistening this evening. This setup should favor
maintenance of the cluster for the next few hours. A downstream
watch is likely within the next hour or so.
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