• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1630

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 28 19:43:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281943
    SPC MCD 281943=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1630
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0243 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

    Areas affected...southeast South Dakota...northeast
    Nebraska...western Iowa...southwest Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 281943Z - 282215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase along a cold front after 21
    or 22Z from northeast Nebraska into southeast South Dakota. Damaging
    gusts and large hail will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...Destabilization continues ahead of a cold front with
    MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg. Meanwhile, deep-layer shear across parts of
    SD has increased to 50 kt. A few cells are noted over southeast SD,
    although disorganized in nature as of 20Z.

    As the upper trough approaches, wind fields will increase, aiding
    severe potential. Storm should increase in coverage along the front
    with the air of peak heating, mainly after 21 or 22Z. Sufficient
    low-level SRH ahead of the front may support a period of supercell
    potential with hail before storms eventually merge into a line with
    damaging wind threat. Enhanced SRH near the IA outflow boundary and
    across west-central MN could conceivably support a brief tornado
    should storms remain cellular.

    ..Jewell/Grams.. 08/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uep9BaWkJOWb_Iy7dbhea93ULtPLk6Ndw_b7-yHzidWEwm_A-QqqeS6Efa_SCsWY1llqSzJK$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41699669 41399852 41389959 41509976 41909973 42359922
    43069858 43909754 44219668 44219586 44049558 43429553
    42089624 41699669=20

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