• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1629

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 28 18:13:28 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281813
    SPC MCD 281813=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1629
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0113 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

    Areas affected...east-central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 468...

    Valid 281813Z - 282015Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 468 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to persist out of Minnesota and
    across northern Wisconsin, with primarily damaging gust potential.

    DISCUSSION...A compact but long-lived MCS is now crossing the MS
    River, with extensive outflow boundary trailing southwestward. The
    strongest part of this MCS is traveling along a diffuse boundary.
    South of this boundary, temperatures continue to slowly rise to near
    80 F despite substantial cloud cover. Breaks in the clouds do exist
    however, from near the Twin Cities into western WI.

    Objective analysis indicates MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg ahead of the
    MCS, which should support a continues damaging wind threat. The 18Z
    MPX sounding shows the effects of cooler, stabilizing outflow air
    from convection over IA, and this will likely limit southward growth
    potential with the ongoing MCS. Embedded areas of rotation cannot be
    ruled out within the arcing line of convection, though effective SRH
    ahead of the MCS is currently only averaging around 100 m2/s2.

    ..Jewell.. 08/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tQ5lWXru_Ovt-sOBCOHJtD7-jEA_0ONoyTJLg-usIrCVgWvniCFQQeY51Xy2ibgmzPPdq5NL$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 46289283 46729165 46989074 46759032 46249000 45698997
    45369041 45199157 45189320 45259367 45639341 45869329
    46039332 46289283=20

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