• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1628

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 28 17:05:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281705
    SPC MCD 281705=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1628
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1205 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

    Areas affected...South-Central Pennsylvania...Western
    Maryland...Eastern West Virginia...and Northern Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 281705Z - 281900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts possible with the strongest
    storms this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows strong insolation this morning
    has given way to scattered convective development over the northern
    part of region. Surface temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s F
    amid rich low-level moisture (dew point temperatures in the upper
    60s and low 70s F). This is yielding around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE.
    With weak convective inhibition and continued
    heating/destabilization, additional pulse-like storms are expected
    to develop throughout the afternoon and gradually move southeastward
    with time. Weak flow throughout the atmosphere will limit storm
    organization, however, a few isolated damaging wind gusts will be
    possible with the strongest storms given at least marginal low-level
    lapse rates near 8 C/km that should develop, particularly over parts
    of northern Virginia and vicinity later this afternoon. Given the
    expectation for an isolated damaging wind threat, watch issuance is
    not expected.

    ..Karstens/Grams.. 08/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uA2_R8o7r9SzCPRg7U15DHOE7oOMS5kl86EJ45r9wXkCX2Jg7Ebsz3-JkIDRX0ikeITzr9Ay$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39387920 40087891 40537913 40937915 41017832 40767758
    40077712 39157722 38397754 38077818 37947903 38077944
    38447964 38977948 39387920=20

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