• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1627

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 28 14:40:00 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281439
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281439=20
    WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-281645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1627
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0939 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

    Areas affected...central Minnesota...northern Wisconsin and western
    Upper Michigan

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467...

    Valid 281439Z - 281645Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An MCS is expected to produce wind damage as it moves
    across central Minnesota and into northwest Wisconsin today. A few
    significant wind gusts are possible. Additional watches are expected
    downstream of WW 467.

    DISCUSSION...A small but intense MCS continues to become more
    organized as it moves out of northeast SD and into west-central MN,
    with impressive IR presentation. Surface temperatures are currently
    cool ahead of this system, only in the upper 60s to lower 70s F
    north of the warm front. However, significant elevated instability
    is present as seen on the 12Z MPX sounding, and, a differential
    heating zone currently exists around the latitude of the Twin
    Cities.

    SBCAPE is expected to increase with heating throughout the day, and
    due to increasing low-level warm advection. Moderate southwest flow
    aloft combined with backed/southeasterly surface winds ahead of this
    system will maintain favorable shear and storm relative inflow. As
    such, this system should at least maintain intensity, and perhaps
    strengthen. While embedded areas of rotation or a brief tornado
    cannot be ruled out with this system, the primary threat is expected
    to be damaging winds.

    ..Jewell.. 08/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vFv0e_6U_vOaNcOxd1Vq6fdy6sVXgvLIgxT_HXY3dDPcl0blr16bkIGl8Rl7sHfmN3XDVcHp$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

    LAT...LON 46029610 46679190 46959101 46959082 46799043 46569023
    46328999 45899004 45499041 45299143 45199283 45109634
    45279631 45669614 46029610=20



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