Mesoscale Discussion 1626
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021
Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota and western/central
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466...
Valid 281042Z - 281245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466
SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue across
northeast South Dakota over the next couple of hours. Strong to
severe storms will likely approach the Minnesota state line
necessitating the issuance of a new weather watch.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Aberdeen shows a
well-developed supercell just to the southeast of Aberdeen. The
storm is located on the western end of an east-to-west corridor of
moderate instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg
along this corridor with effective shear near 50 kt. This combined
with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8.0 C/km will continue to be
favorable for supercells with large hail. In spite of a low-level
temperature inversion, a few strong to severe wind gusts will also
Further to the west, a short line segment with embedded rotating
storms is located near Mobridge. The storms will move eastward along
a gradient of moderate instability with the RAP estimating MLCAPE
near 1500 J/kg. This combined with strong effective shear will be
favorable for continued hail threat. A potential for isolated strong
gusts will also be possible.
The storms and the associated severe threat will likely continue
beyond the current watch expiration time. A new weather will likely
be needed beyond 13Z.
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