• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1626

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 28 10:42:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281042
    SPC MCD 281042=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1626
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0542 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota and western/central

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466...

    Valid 281042Z - 281245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue across
    northeast South Dakota over the next couple of hours. Strong to
    severe storms will likely approach the Minnesota state line
    necessitating the issuance of a new weather watch.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Aberdeen shows a
    well-developed supercell just to the southeast of Aberdeen. The
    storm is located on the western end of an east-to-west corridor of
    moderate instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg
    along this corridor with effective shear near 50 kt. This combined
    with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8.0 C/km will continue to be
    favorable for supercells with large hail. In spite of a low-level
    temperature inversion, a few strong to severe wind gusts will also
    be possible.

    Further to the west, a short line segment with embedded rotating
    storms is located near Mobridge. The storms will move eastward along
    a gradient of moderate instability with the RAP estimating MLCAPE
    near 1500 J/kg. This combined with strong effective shear will be
    favorable for continued hail threat. A potential for isolated strong
    gusts will also be possible.

    The storms and the associated severe threat will likely continue
    beyond the current watch expiration time. A new weather will likely
    be needed beyond 13Z.

    ..Broyles.. 08/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p1sxFtOIp-roSoWRyCboEiKwTYH1_xGc2xkkbORq3gg4jHHehqfN_6m7EtmLl7zhWPIkPLl-$=
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    LAT...LON 44989389 45419387 45769402 45969446 46049500 45989565
    45889662 45839863 45839961 45580019 45240024 44960006
    44769943 44829772 44729672 44499576 44449520 44579433

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