• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1625

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 28 07:18:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 280718
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280717=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-280945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1625
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0217 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota...West-central Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 280717Z - 280945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected across northeastern
    South Dakota over the next few hours. Hail and strong wind gusts
    will be the primary threats. The potential for severe could impact
    parts of west-central Minnesota later tonight. Weather watch
    issuance remains a possibility.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Aberdeen shows a small
    cluster of storms over north-central South Dakota. This cluster will
    move eastward into increasing instability across northeast South
    Dakota over the next couple of hours. The RAP has MLCAPE across
    northeast South Dakota in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range with effective
    shear in the 50 to 60 kt range. This should be favorable for
    isolated supercells with hail. A sharp temperature inversion exists
    in the boundary layer which will keep the storms elevated. Although
    this will temper the wind-damage threat, a few strong wind gusts can
    still not be ruled out. The severe threat may impact west-central
    Minnesota later tonight as the convective cluster remains intact.

    ..Broyles/Thompson.. 08/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tAI82rCzY_LQpKFyZQLyXvdvQRKvXubq93qfaPSVCAYlxtawMmpCzn-pfBX2A_Uw8HsRh9_v$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 45199559 44989690 45019855 45069910 45179969 45529989
    45839951 45959894 45969806 45909713 45789576 45199559=20



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