Mesoscale Discussion 1623
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021
Areas affected...Northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin
Concerning...Tornado Watch 465...
Valid 280059Z - 280300Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 465 continues.
SUMMARY...The tornado threat in WW 465 will be maximized with a
supercell thunderstorm moving into southwestern Wisconsin.
DISCUSSION...The greatest tornado threat in WW 465 will exist with a
supercell storm moving along the Allamakee/Clayton County (IA)
border. This storm will impact parts of Crawford/Grant Counties (WI)
within the next 1-2 hours. Moderate buoyancy remains ahead of this
storm with surface winds still backed to SSE.
In southeastern Minnesota, thunderstorms have increased in coverage,
but they are likely slightly elevated above the cooler air that has
remained in place. These storms could periodically intensify given
modest mid-level lapse rates and around 40 kts of shear. Damaging
winds and isolated large hail would be the main threats.
The low-level jet is forecast to increase into southern Wisconsin as
the evening progresses. This may promote greater storm coverage from southeastern Minnesota into southern Wisconsin. This sort of
scenario would likely favor a cluster of storms slowly sagging south
and east with an accompanying damaging wind threat.
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