• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1622

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 27 23:34:50 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 272334
    SPC MCD 272333=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1622
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0633 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

    Areas affected...Northwestern South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 272333Z - 280130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Large to very large-hail will be possible with a supercell
    in northwest South Dakota. Damaging wind gusts are also possible.
    Activity may persist for another 1-3 hours. A watch is not expected
    unless storm coverage becomes greater than anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...A supercell thunderstorm has intensified over the past
    hour or so. GOES mesosector imagery has shown the development of a
    back-sheared anvil and a more pronounced overshooting top. MRMS
    CAPPI data have also indicated very high reflectivity aloft. With
    over 50 kts of effective shear and the storm moving into a better
    thermodynamic environment to the east, large to very large (2+ inch)
    hail and damaging wind gusts will be threats. Storm coverage
    continues to be the main question. Dry surface conditions have
    limited buoyancy despite the mid-level ascent with a broad trough to
    the northwest. Activity may persist a few hours into the evening
    with support from an increasing low-level jet into central South
    Dakota. A watch is not expected this evening given the isolated
    coverage expected.

    ..Wendt/Bunting.. 08/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sahaRJ__F4siMM-Rsf9O_jUTQlPpgpkUzgVnaz7TFI6A2cQq1rzUXQd_0WS9AVVlG1ZLkhkK$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 45280401 45720310 45840205 45480149 44920141 44700229
    44820345 44960387 45280401=20

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