• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1621

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 27 23:29:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 272329
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272328=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-280100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1621
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0628 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

    Areas affected...far eastern NE...west-central IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 272328Z - 280100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible with the
    more intense thunderstorms this evening. Overall storm coverage is
    still uncertain (i.e., isolated) and the lower storm coverage may
    preclude a severe thunderstorm watch being issued, although the
    stronger storms will potentially be capable of severe weather given
    the favorable environment.

    DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows developing convection
    over far eastern NE into west-central IA on the trailing portion of
    a mid-level shortwave trough migrating east-northeastward over the
    Upper Midwest. Surface conditions are hot and humid with
    temperatures in the lower 90s with lower 70s dewpoints. The RAP
    forecast sounding for Omaha, NE shows a good depiction of the
    surface conditions and it indicates around 3300 J/kg MLCAPE.=20
    Although flow is relatively modest in the lowest 9 km per KOAX 88D
    VAD data (sub 30 kt), 25-30 kt effective shear is indicated and
    would in turn support organized storm structures this evening. The
    main threats with the stronger storms would be a hail/wind threat.

    ..Smith/Bunting.. 08/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qFIRaJwL57ylHOO8wwKGX2eo9ptPJZGDK6-E-Sf5igFeP1Cq0s9275PqbhBrIVmcs_rME5Wz$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 41319663 42129588 42589525 42659446 42359396 41819414
    41149559 40929619 41319663=20



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