• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1619

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 27 21:02:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 272102
    SPC MCD 272101=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1619
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0401 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Iowa...Southwest Wisconsin...and Southern

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 272101Z - 272200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Intensification and new convective development remain
    possible this evening. Area continues to be monitored for possible
    watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite continues to show widespread cloud
    cover over southern Minnesota into north-central Iowa associated
    with ongoing elevated convection. Farther south, a reservoir of
    moderate instability (MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg) has developed within
    a deeply mixed boundary layer. Despite these conditions, convective
    activity has struggled to intensify, perhaps owing to the residual
    cloud cover and somewhat modest mid-level lapse rates.

    Short-term evolution of the ongoing convection and any new
    development remains unclear. Visible satellite shows some signs of
    more vigorous updrafts developing over north-central Iowa. Modest
    deep-layer shear remains present over the region, which will help to
    organize this convection should it become rooted in the boundary
    layer, and favorable low-level shear over this region will support a
    tornado threat where low-level winds can remain backed, in addition
    to a hail/wind threat. This area will continue to be monitored for
    possible watch issuance in the next few hours.

    ..Karstens/Dial.. 08/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oLk1FJ1nkeFLMl5O3OdC8F11CDiLurE_2EFbh6TXUO-YniOQl1EmJtMrRnklpcQ-1NXEWFnV$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 42299294 42119456 42519533 43659414 44089206 43919015
    42929064 42299294=20

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