• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1618

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 27 20:55:53 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 272055
    SPC MCD 272055=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1618
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0355 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

    Areas affected...Northern High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 272055Z - 272300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is possible late this
    afternoon into early evening. The strongest storms will be capable
    of large hail and locally severe wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...An mid/upper-level trough is moving across Montana this
    afternoon. Multiple vorticity maxima are evident on WV imagery
    within the larger-scale trough, but a lobe of ascent appears to
    moving across eastern MT, in conjunction with a weak surface
    boundary, and gradually deepening cumulus is noted across southeast
    MT. While surface temperatures are not particularly warm, relatively
    cool midlevel temperatures are supporting SBCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg
    (per recent mesoanalyses), with weakening SBCINH. Effective shear is
    generally 30-40 kt across the region, with locally higher values
    across northwest SD/southwest ND/southeast MT, where surface winds
    are locally backed.=20

    Isolated thunderstorm development is expected sometime late this afternoon/early evening, with the most likely area across northwest SD/southwest ND, where somewhat greater surface confluence is noted.
    Long hodographs will favor a conditional potential for supercells,
    with large hail and locally severe wind gusts the primary threats.
    The need for a watch remains uncertain at this time, due to
    potentially sparse storm coverage.

    ..Dean/Dial.. 08/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sn6P8gEZ7Tni3EroTqnB29V1l5hIcls0B4tKXIJufG5awvutGpbDYuMhY7j3llJwL9Vi-Ewm$=
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    LAT...LON 44660394 44830497 45350510 45720519 47670537 48440524
    48730484 48760423 48710344 48680288 48540224 46650207
    45980205 45470208 45070232 44840272 44680310 44680335

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