• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1616

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 27 17:41:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 271741
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271741=20
    PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-272015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1616
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1241 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the Mid Atlantic

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 271741Z - 272015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon,
    with isolated-to-scattered damaging wind gusts possible.

    DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon, a weak midlevel shortwave trough
    is moving slowly eastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with convection
    beginning to develop across the higher terrain. Downstream, strong
    heating of a very moist boundary layer is resulting in MLCAPE of
    1500-2000 J/kg as of 17Z, with some further increase in buoyancy
    expected through the afternoon. Storm coverage is expected to
    gradually increase this afternoon in advance of the shortwave
    trough. Deep-layer shear is generally weak across the region and
    storms may tend to remain disorganized, with a primary risk of
    isolated downburst wind gusts within the high PW environment.
    However, slightly stronger westerly midlevel flow along the southern
    flank of the shortwave trough may promote some loosely organized
    clusters across MD/DC/northern VA, which could pose a slightly more
    organized damaging wind risk.=20

    Given the weak deep-layer shear across the region, watch issuance is
    currently considered unlikely, but this will be reevaluated if more
    organized outflow-driven clusters develop or appear imminent.

    ..Dean/Dial.. 08/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vZ7NM4kZ82KTIyBwJOyiDr-7jPu32zCbFQWhRUik8-4s-rQcbZwVOorB9EzwWq09lbQUsZ6i$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 38837830 40037771 40287700 40327665 40127586 39927571
    39657562 39107589 38797625 38447659 38147707 37957738
    37897802 38367851 38837830=20



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