• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1615

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 27 03:46:15 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 270346
    SPC MCD 270345=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1615
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1045 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

    Areas affected...portions of southern MN and northern IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 270345Z - 270545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms producing locally
    strong gusts and hail are possible into the early overnight period
    across parts of southern MN into northern IA.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered convection has developed across
    far southern MN into far northern IA late this evening. This
    activity is to the north of a west-to-east oriented stationary
    surface boundary extending across northern IA. This activity has
    intensified recently as warm advection increases across the region
    as a southerly low level jet has strengthened over the mid-MO valley
    vicinity. Strong inhibition exists, especially north of the
    boundary, but moderate instability amid steep midlevel lapse rates
    and effective shear greater than 35 kt is aiding in organized
    clusters. Hail and locally strong gusts could accompany this
    activity into the early overnight period. However, the elevated
    nature of convection may temper the overall severe threat as
    convection shifts northeast into a somewhat less favorable
    environment. While a severe thunderstorm watch does not appear
    imminent at this time, convective trends are being monitored, both
    with activity across northern IA as well as further west across
    northeast NE/southeast SD. If better organized clusters develop, a
    watch could become necessary.

    ..Leitman/Bunting.. 08/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qw8vQN12UWMh7HRi_VIiMdTS7zDm4LNuWjx8q-DeExFk98MLqRGueeLTAmHqLR4967OvDo4c$=
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    LAT...LON 44159610 44259541 44179345 44029257 43759202 43259193
    42779202 42539265 42339426 42219599 42169667 42689678
    44069644 44159610=20

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