• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1614

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 27 00:26:15 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 270026
    SPC MCD 270025=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1614
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0725 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southern South Dakota and northern

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 270025Z - 270230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Parts of western into central South Dakota and Nebraska
    will see and increase in severe thunderstorm activity this evening.
    Damaging wind gusts are likely the main threat, though large hail
    will be possible with discrete storms. A severe thunderstorm watch
    may be needed for parts of these areas.

    DISCUSSION...Satellite and NLDN lightning data have shown an
    increase in storm intensity near the Black Hills. Other thunderstorm development is occurring in parts of central Nebraska near what
    appears to be a remnant outflow boundary. Increasing height falls
    and an increase in the low-level jet across the central and northern
    Plains should support and greater storm coverage and intensity this
    evening. How storms evolve this evening is still uncertain. Storms
    near the Black Hills may progress along a quasi-stationary boundary
    within northern South Dakota with additional development as warm
    advection increases. Steep mid-level lapse rates were sampled by
    this evening's regional soundings. With moderate flow aloft, 40-50
    kts of effective shear will support organized storms capable of
    damaging wind gusts as well as large hail with the more discrete,
    supercellular activity. Even with the uncertainty, a severe
    thunderstorm watch may be needed later this evening. Trends will
    continue to be monitored.

    ..Wendt/Bunting.. 08/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pvMKonciVh8dcq5nxJG5V3wDhq_r-izpEQp1jAh3Nt_X7_GzzQkFISsjisroNWNdz63e3_YR$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 44440328 44840166 44689905 44519844 43209748 42409844
    42300000 42370173 42610251 42900355 43150395 44100389

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