• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1613

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 26 22:34:44 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 262234
    SPC MCD 262234=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1613
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0534 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

    Areas affected...portions of eastern NE...southeast SD and western

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 262234Z - 270030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential is increasing across parts
    of eastern Nebraska into far southeast South Dakota and western
    Iowa. Damaging gusts and large hail are possible this evening into
    tonight. This area is being monitored for a possible severe
    thunderstorm watch.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated convection is developing along an
    eastward-advancing boundary across northeast/central NE that extends
    from roughly Holt County toward Custer County. Another west-to-east
    oriented outflow boundary extends from southeast Holt County into
    western IA. Stronger capping exists across southeast SD into
    northern IA due to early day convection, persistent cloud cover and
    periodic thunderstorms/showers. Near and south of the outflow
    boundary, strong instability is in place with surface dewpoints in
    the 70s F in a nearly uncapped environment. Large-scale forcing
    remains modest across the region.=20

    As a result of capping and weak forcing, uncertainty exists
    regarding convective evolution across the region . However, as a low
    level jet increases this evening, convection may be able to become
    organized in the vicinity of these surface boundaries across
    northeast NE into far southeast SD and western IA. Aided by the
    developing south/southwesterly low level jet and effective shear
    magnitudes around 35-45 kt, thunderstorm clusters may evolve into an eastward-propagating line, posing a threat for damaging gusts this
    evening into tonight. Strong instability and moderately steep
    midlevel lapse rates also could support large hail with any
    semi-discrete activity. Convective trends are being monitored and a
    severe thunderstorm watch may be needed for portions of the MCD area
    in the next couple of hours.

    ..Leitman/Bunting.. 08/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rGdV7p13iK7hpKB4vnwFO4NHpaxQOGfI_np1zC8k5AYuIBS2IM26fQf2Osd2X3gotyePzsg3$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 42169923 43169760 43449686 43509630 43499559 43309516
    42619481 42169487 41629515 41239584 41119672 41139787
    41199942 41369988 41679973 41929942 42169923=20

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