• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1612

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 26 20:06:44 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 262006
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262006=20
    MTZ000-262200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1612
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0306 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

    Areas affected...central Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 262006Z - 262200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe storms including a few supercells
    may develop late this afternoons across central Montana. Damaging
    winds and hail will be the primary severe risk.

    DISCUSSION...Ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough evident from
    afternoon WV imagery, deepening cumulus towers were noted along the
    eastern edge of the Rockies across central Montana. Here, diurnal
    heating and weak upslope flow are supporting gradual destabilization
    with 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE present according to SPC mesoanalysis.
    Mid-level flow associated with the trough is also supporting between
    25 and 35 kt of effective shear favorable for organized clusters and
    perhaps a few supercell structures. Relatively dry low levels
    suggest downdraft and cold pool development will favor a damaging
    wind threat with the stronger storms. Cool temperatures aloft
    beneath the mid-level trough may also support the potential for
    severe hail, especially with any rotating storms.

    Storm development and an increase in severe risk appears possible by
    22-23z as initial updrafts begin to move off of the the higher
    terrain into central Montana. Considerable uncertainty remains on
    the magnitude of severe threat as hi-res guidance suggests storm
    coverage may be quite limited. Despite the uncertainty, the
    CAPE/Shear space would support at least an isolated severe wind/hail
    risk with any storms that develop. Convective trends will be
    monitored for a possible weather watch.

    ..Lyons/Dial.. 08/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pXbEhz-gQP_tkYRSkdWqIQaT_0PoAblMzrxFjOrPhFJYNRbshwvf2MRcnLzWolUUzoXIr61Y$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 47890892 48070757 47460677 46640623 46060627 45160698
    45220817 46410931 47080982 47890892=20



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