• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1611

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 26 18:54:14 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261854
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261853=20
    MNZ000-WIZ000-262030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1611
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0153 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast MN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 261853Z - 262030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible with the
    small thunderstorm cluster moving into southeast Minnesota. New
    watch issuance is unlikely in the short term.

    DISCUSSION...While the earlier well-organized MCS across MN has
    mostly decayed, convection remains relatively vigorous
    west/southwest of the Twin Cities area in southeast MN. The surface
    reflection of this system is not as strong as noted earlier, though
    rather substantial pressure rises are still being noted in the
    immediate wake of the line. Limited buoyancy on the 18Z MPX suggests
    that substantial reintensification of this cluster is unlikely, but
    the relative dryness noted below 900mb may allow for some stronger
    gusts to mix to the surface, despite the notable low-level
    stability. Since the threat is expected to remain relatively limited
    in areal coverage and magnitude, short-term watch issuance is
    unlikely.

    ..Dean/Dial.. 08/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oPwb8NONiu0r9_iukACzne3IKS2cOOCFeueXNDO39t6JCvTnzyNaHOi1tYUbVtKzEWfNnTA0$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 45089400 45129336 45109282 44909249 44609237 44269243
    44289337 44299376 44349403 44599410 45089400=20



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