• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1610

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 26 18:21:12 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261821
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261820=20
    MEZ000-261945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1610
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0120 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

    Areas affected...Northwestern Maine

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 261820Z - 261945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front across
    eastern Quebec will move eastward with a risk for isolated damaging
    winds and hail this afternoon. Uncertainty on storm coverage remains considerable at this time. Convective trends will be monitored but a
    watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...As of 18 UTC, regional surface observations and visible
    satellite data showed deepening cumulus along a fast moving cold
    front in the vicinity of Quebec City, QC. Downstream across portions
    of northern/western ME, daytime heating of a moist airmass with
    dewpoints near 70 f is supporting moderate destabilization. SPC
    mesoanalysis indicates 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE has developed with
    additional destabilization likely in the coming hours. Increasing
    westerly flow aloft ahead of shortwave trough within interior Canada
    is forecast to overspread the unstable airmass through this evening
    with 35-45 kt of effective shear.=20

    RAP forecast soundings show long but only weakly veering hodographs
    supportive of a mixed-mode of splitting supercells and line segments
    capable of damaging wind gusts and severe hail. Mesoscale trends and
    hi-res guidance suggest convective development along the front is
    likely over the next several hours though it is uncertain exactly
    how much storm coverage will develop. As storms track eastward
    across the international border additional development and some
    upscale growth into several clusters or line segments with a risk
    for damaging winds/hail appears possible but remains uncertain. The
    threat for isolated wind gusts and hail may extend eastward with
    time across much of central ME until storms begin to interact with a
    cooler and more stable maritime airmass near the Atlantic coast.

    ..Lyons/Dial.. 08/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oSEGMh874W9UqzMJ1zaylyLOycqrgeoqE0rtojc7kuUiCSgJUd1OUJ8y_temQ2ia46oojOoU$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

    LAT...LON 45197049 46287032 46946990 47496919 47436875 47306803
    46946772 46436784 45936820 45526858 45176902 45036930
    44786983 44807012 44977034 45197049=20



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