• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1609

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 26 18:13:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261813
    SPC MCD 261812=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1609
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0112 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

    Areas affected...Extreme southeast MN/northeast IA...Southwest WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 261812Z - 261945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Some increase in the damaging wind threat is possible this
    afternoon ahead of a convective line. Watch issuance is currently
    considered unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...At 18Z, a line of thunderstorms is gradually
    intensifying across northeast IA into southeast MN, along a remnant
    outflow from the decaying MCS across central IA. While substantial
    cloud cover is noted downstream into southwest WI, some modest heating/destabilization has occurred, especially near and south of a
    surface boundary draped from southern WI into southwest MN.=20

    Continued modest destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse
    rates may allow for an increasing damaging wind potential with this
    line as it moves northeastward. Relatively modest deep-layer
    flow/shear (as noted in KARX VWP) should keep organization
    relatively limited, so watch issuance is currently considered

    ..Dean/Dial.. 08/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vg7sucoPSOt-SDb1dij98pzlK0KAB3DUZGIuUiFNHp3SA8WrTz6XkRawTu_CER3cK3C_nAy6$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 43859258 44309147 44349064 43999015 43658999 43199019
    43059063 42979113 42959185 43199211 43419235 43859258=20

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