• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1607

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 26 14:41:12 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261441
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261440=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-261615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1607
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0940 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

    Areas affected...Central/southern IA into far northern MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 261440Z - 261615Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind threat will continue through the
    morning with ongoing MCS.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS is moving across central IA at 1430Z.
    This system is being supported by steep midlevel lapse rates,
    low-level warm advection, and modestly enhanced deep-layer shear.
    The system has remained largely sub-severe thus far, with
    substantial MLCINH and the lack of a stronger surface cold pool
    limiting the potential for stronger wind gusts at the surface.=20

    If the system can be sustained into the late morning/early
    afternoon, the damaging wind threat may increase in conjunction with
    steepening low-level lapse rates. However, the VWP from the KDMX
    remains lackluster, with weaker low/midlevel flow compared to areas
    to the north and west, and the system may begin outrunning the
    favorable warm-advection regime that remains focused to the west.
    Deep-layer shear also weakens with eastward extent, so some
    weakening of the system appears likely unless a stronger cold pool
    can be established. The system may tend to propagate more
    southeastward with time into the stronger buoyancy, potentially
    posing a localized damaging wind threat into parts of southern IA
    and far northern MO. Watch issuance remains unlikely in the short
    term, unless an uptick in convective organization and/or surface
    wind gusts is observed.

    ..Dean/Dial.. 08/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vaR74no9RP3Il8olcsRaVG7gOEwWhXeLuGyxTxNNyaEt9Gsn3nTedDYp-wKFslCFPEP9ewj7$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

    LAT...LON 42549413 42589399 42539331 42379202 41879202 41249228
    40369267 40389428 40509482 40739525 40969494 41549459
    41749449 42549413=20



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