Mesoscale Discussion 1607
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0940 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021
Areas affected...Central/southern IA into far northern MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 261440Z - 261615Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind threat will continue through the
morning with ongoing MCS.
DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS is moving across central IA at 1430Z.
This system is being supported by steep midlevel lapse rates,
low-level warm advection, and modestly enhanced deep-layer shear.
The system has remained largely sub-severe thus far, with
substantial MLCINH and the lack of a stronger surface cold pool
limiting the potential for stronger wind gusts at the surface.=20
If the system can be sustained into the late morning/early
afternoon, the damaging wind threat may increase in conjunction with
steepening low-level lapse rates. However, the VWP from the KDMX
remains lackluster, with weaker low/midlevel flow compared to areas
to the north and west, and the system may begin outrunning the
favorable warm-advection regime that remains focused to the west.
Deep-layer shear also weakens with eastward extent, so some
weakening of the system appears likely unless a stronger cold pool
can be established. The system may tend to propagate more
southeastward with time into the stronger buoyancy, potentially
posing a localized damaging wind threat into parts of southern IA
and far northern MO. Watch issuance remains unlikely in the short
term, unless an uptick in convective organization and/or surface
wind gusts is observed.
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