• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1606

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 26 13:37:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261337
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261336=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-261500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1606
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0836 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern SD into extreme southwest MN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 261336Z - 261500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic strong-to-severe wind gusts will remain possible
    this morning as a thunderstorm cluster moves southeastward. Watch
    issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Sporadic strong to occasionally severe wind gusts have
    been noted over the last 1-2 hours in association with a
    thunderstorm cluster moving southeastward across eastern SD. This
    convection is elevated and will likely remain so through the
    morning, given rather substantial downstream MLCINH. However,
    increasing low-level moisture transport may allow the cluster to
    become rooted closer to the surface with time and allow it to tap
    into larger MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg) as it tracks
    southeastward.=20

    Effective shear in excess of 40 kt will continue to support some
    organization with this cluster, with a short-term severe wind threat
    likely spreading into a larger portion of eastern SD and far
    southwest MN. The longer-term evolution of this cluster remains
    uncertain, due to potential stabilizing effects from a downstream
    thunderstorm cluster across Iowa, but watch issuance is possible to
    cover the threat through the late morning hours.

    ..Dean/Dial.. 08/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oerDUW6g6O70UCaXK-2WHs01pypsygS-nBpBi-Qqo8l8KaKtD-Xv7Ke41CwFsvEjblNo-Izf$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 44569926 45089852 45599771 45709737 45609644 44969612
    44669623 44349667 44079731 43869770 43789825 43829894
    43889917 44079938 44569926=20



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