• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1605

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 26 12:38:12 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261238
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261237=20
    IAZ000-261400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1605
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0737 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of western/central IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 261237Z - 261400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat may persist with a cluster of
    storms moving eastward this morning. Watch issuance appears unlikely
    in the short term.

    DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms has persisted through the
    early morning across eastern NE while fluctuating in intensity. This
    cluster should continue into parts of western/central IA over the
    next hour or two. The airmass downstream is not overly favorable at
    the moment for this activity to maintain itself, as a fair amount of
    convective inhibition is in place across IA per recent mesoanalysis
    estimates. However, even modest diurnal heating of the already moist
    low-level airmass may help erode the convective inhibition to some
    degree. This cluster is on the southern extent of the stronger
    mid-level westerlies present across the northern/central Plains.
    Still, recent VWPs from KOAX show some veering/strengthening of the
    flow with height into mid/upper levels, which may support storm
    organization in the short term. A supercell embedded within the
    cluster on its southern flank has recently shown evidence of a hail
    core. Given the mainly linear nature of the ongoing storms, isolated
    strong to damaging winds may occur as this cluster moves eastward
    over the next hour or so. Occasional hail also appears possible with
    the embedded supercell. Current expectations are for these storms to
    eventually weaken across central IA later this morning, and watch
    issuance in the short term appears unlikely.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pNHgBvyC2WdLgaXr1E1LbTcGs8Lq47XHK9qvnpApuvasNos6cQLBmkypzackJeTdQjosRues$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 42749571 42849460 42719315 41889305 41379322 41259400
    41399568 41689603 42279578 42749571=20



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