Mesoscale Discussion 1604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021
Areas affected...Portions of central into northeastern NE and far
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 260810Z - 261045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated threat for hail and strong to severe wind
gusts may exist with a cluster of storms moving northeastward. Watch
issuance is not expected at this time.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms with a couple of embedded supercell
structures should continue moving northeastward from central to
northeastern NE over the next couple of hours. This activity may
eventually reach far southeastern SD. These storms may be the result
of an outflow boundary from earlier convection across the central
High Plains aiding parcels to their LFC in tandem with low-level
lift associated with a modest (20-25 kt) southerly low-level jet.
Deep-layer shear is relatively modest with southward extent across
NE, but these storms will move into a more favorable kinematic
environment characterized by deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt over
the next few hours. There is also substantial elevated instability
present across this region, with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg present.
Recent convection-allowing model guidance has struggled to
depict/sustain this convection, but current expectations are for an
isolated hail threat to exist with any embedded supercells.
Occasional strong to severe wind gusts within the cluster may also
reach the surface given the large degree of buoyancy available for
convective downdrafts, even with some convective inhibition present. Eventually, weakening of this cluster may occur into far
southeastern SD and vicinity, as less low-level moisture and related instability are present with northward extent. Regardless, the
overall severe threat should remain quite isolated early this
morning, and a watch is not expected at this time.
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at firstname.lastname@example.org and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1629965502-87341-3253--