• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1604

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 26 08:11:37 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 260811
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260810=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-261045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1604
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0310 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central into northeastern NE and far
    southeastern SD

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 260810Z - 261045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated threat for hail and strong to severe wind
    gusts may exist with a cluster of storms moving northeastward. Watch
    issuance is not expected at this time.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms with a couple of embedded supercell
    structures should continue moving northeastward from central to
    northeastern NE over the next couple of hours. This activity may
    eventually reach far southeastern SD. These storms may be the result
    of an outflow boundary from earlier convection across the central
    High Plains aiding parcels to their LFC in tandem with low-level
    lift associated with a modest (20-25 kt) southerly low-level jet.
    Deep-layer shear is relatively modest with southward extent across
    NE, but these storms will move into a more favorable kinematic
    environment characterized by deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt over
    the next few hours. There is also substantial elevated instability
    present across this region, with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg present.
    Recent convection-allowing model guidance has struggled to
    depict/sustain this convection, but current expectations are for an
    isolated hail threat to exist with any embedded supercells.
    Occasional strong to severe wind gusts within the cluster may also
    reach the surface given the large degree of buoyancy available for
    convective downdrafts, even with some convective inhibition present. Eventually, weakening of this cluster may occur into far
    southeastern SD and vicinity, as less low-level moisture and related instability are present with northward extent. Regardless, the
    overall severe threat should remain quite isolated early this
    morning, and a watch is not expected at this time.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tBtHJSxuCHwITYSRfKAmT3lKPRhcWB3Ec1d5hvjMXQksnN39MjFbvsqbV2qtcqSeA7MbLf2x$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...

    LAT...LON 41759965 42329970 43149897 43489814 43459690 42719669
    42249666 41779836 41759965=20



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