• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1603

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 26 07:36:09 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 260736
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260735=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-261000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1603
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0235 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southern ND and northern SD

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 260735Z - 261000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail may occur with elevated storms early
    this morning. Watch issuance appears unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Water vapor satellite imagery shows a mid-level impulse
    ejecting from the northern Rockies across the adjacent Plains early
    this morning. A 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet centered over SD is
    also providing lift, and storms along the ND/SD border have recently
    increased in coverage and intensity. An MUCAPE gradient exists
    along/near the ND/SD border in association with returning low-level
    moisture centered around 850 mb. About 2000-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE
    should be available for this convection as it moves generally
    eastward, with storms likely remaining elevated given greater
    surface dewpoints remain displaced well to the south across NE.
    Still, effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt will prove favorable for
    supercells with an associated threat for isolated large hail given
    the steep mid-level lapse rates present across much of the northern
    Plains. Current expectations are for this hail threat to remain
    fairly isolated through the early morning, and a watch appears
    unlikely. There may also be a tendency for these supercells to form
    into a cluster or two, and a sporadic strong wind gust breaching the near-surface stable layer may also occur.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qzT2PySEh5aSYtac1QzXg2ySvE1iR1Rhn8P-MSQCFr4auXzdIFQbYrzqbXRQAVn-xDsvyYJ6$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

    LAT...LON 45500390 46230301 46540217 46390029 46219816 45229812
    44859933 44870165 45130337 45500390=20



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