• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1602

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 25 21:03:08 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 252103
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252102=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-252230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1602
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0402 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

    Areas affected...Illinois and western Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 252102Z - 252230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered storm development is possible this afternoon/evening with a risk for a few damaging wind gusts or hail.
    Given the limited coverage, a weather watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Within a weakly forced and sheared environment ahead of
    a weak MCV over eastern Iowa, gradual destabilization has resulted
    in a few storms across far western Illinois and Indiana. Satellite
    trends and hi-res guidance suggest additional storm development with
    a risk for strong winds or hail is probable over the next few hours.

    SPC mesoanalysis indicates 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present
    across much of Illinois owing to strong heating and surface
    dewpoints in the 70s F. As the cluster of storms east of Davenport
    continues south and east, strong buoyancy will continue to support
    vigorous updrafts with occasional hail or damaging gust potential.
    CAM guidance is not overly bullish with any organization of the
    ongoing convection. However, hints at a weak cold pool developing
    suggest some clustering may occur as storms move southeastward.

    Across far western Indiana and eastern Illinois, a westward
    propagating cluster of storms may also pose an isolated risk for
    downbursts this evening. Little vertical shear is in place with
    multicell storms exhibiting pulse characteristics. However, as
    additional development takes place, collapsing storms may produce a
    few strong wind gusts into this evening.

    ..Lyons/Kerr.. 08/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vmQ8Czimb5uAj8IzVmf2ZvRvlvvThxL33Z7GnnpwNGgnKCvqex_oHktuLB6WmZ2KSAGfYtUM$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 41909017 41848914 41298827 40858780 40568744 40208722
    39688734 39308774 39378845 39548908 39858980 40249031
    40629062 40959085 41399073 41689055 41909017=20



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