Mesoscale Discussion 1602
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021
Areas affected...Illinois and western Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 252102Z - 252230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered storm development is possible this afternoon/evening with a risk for a few damaging wind gusts or hail.
Given the limited coverage, a weather watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Within a weakly forced and sheared environment ahead of
a weak MCV over eastern Iowa, gradual destabilization has resulted
in a few storms across far western Illinois and Indiana. Satellite
trends and hi-res guidance suggest additional storm development with
a risk for strong winds or hail is probable over the next few hours.
SPC mesoanalysis indicates 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present
across much of Illinois owing to strong heating and surface
dewpoints in the 70s F. As the cluster of storms east of Davenport
continues south and east, strong buoyancy will continue to support
vigorous updrafts with occasional hail or damaging gust potential.
CAM guidance is not overly bullish with any organization of the
ongoing convection. However, hints at a weak cold pool developing
suggest some clustering may occur as storms move southeastward.
Across far western Indiana and eastern Illinois, a westward
propagating cluster of storms may also pose an isolated risk for
downbursts this evening. Little vertical shear is in place with
multicell storms exhibiting pulse characteristics. However, as
additional development takes place, collapsing storms may produce a
few strong wind gusts into this evening.
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